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07/30/2010 - Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Gordon hit a game-winning three-run homer with two outs in the ninth, and the Kansas City Royals put together a fierce rally to stun the Baltimore Orioles, 7-5, in the second of four games at Kauffman Stadium.
Alfredo Simon (2-2) came on to protect Baltimore's one-run lead in the ninth, but couldn't convert the save opportunity.
The first two Kansas City batters were quickly retired, but Rick Ankiel kept the game alive with a walk. Wilson Betemit followed with a single through the infield's right side to put runners on the corners, and Gordon ended the game by belting a Simon offering well over the wall in right field.
The homer made a winner of Blake Wood (1-2), who pitched a scoreless inning of relief.
It was Gordon's first career game-ending home run. The once highly touted third baseman was playing in just his seventh game since being recalled earlier this month. He was converted to an outfielder in the minor leagues and hit just his second home run of the season in 19 games.
Betemit finished with three hits and two RBI, while Ankiel reached base three times, drove in a run and scored twice, as the Royals snapped a five-game losing streak.
Ty Wigginton had three hits and drove in two for the Orioles, who have lost six of seven. Nick Markakis added two hits and three runs scored in defeat.
The Royals grabbed the early lead, scoring three runs in the first with two away.
With runners on second and third following a Jose Guillen fly out, Ankiel plated one with a double, and Betemit brought in two more with a base hit to right.
The Orioles managed to tie the game with single runs in three separate innings.
Felix Pie's sacrifice fly in the second got Baltimore on the board, and Markakis singled with two down in the third and scored on Wigginton's double for a one-run game.
In the sixth, Markakis led off with a walk, moved to third on Wigginton's single and scored on Luke Scott's sacrifice fly for a 3-3 score.
Yuniesky Betancourt led off the home half of the inning against Jason Berken and singled to right. Mitch Maier stepped up and doubled in the runner for a 4-3 KC lead, although the hosts couldn't push Maier across to increase the advantage.
The Orioles went ahead with two runs in the eighth.
With Kyle Farnsworth on the mound, Markakis led off with a single and quickly came around to score on Wigginton's double. Luke Scott followed with another base hit to send Wigginton to third, and Wigginton scored on the next play when Betemit committed a fielding error.
Game Notes
Home plate umpire and crew chief Wally Bell exited the game in the sixth inning with heat exhaustion and dehydration. He was replaced behind the plate by second base umpire Todd Tichenor...The Orioles went 1- for-10 with runners in scoring position and are 2-for-35 in such situations in the last five games...The season series is tied, 2-2.
<< Twins remain hot, sink Mariners
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jim Thome and Alexi Casilla both clubbed a
two-run homer, as the streaking Minnesota Twins beat Seattle, 5-3, in the
opener of a three-game series at Target Field.
J.J. Hardy had two hits and score
<< Peralta homers twice in Tigers debut; Detroit tops Boston
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jhonny Peralta hit a pair of homers and drove in
three in his Tigers debut, as Detroit held on against Boston's furious ninth-
inning rally for a 6-5 decision in the first of three between the clubs at
Fenway
<< Harrell wins MLB debut as White Sox extend home win streak
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gordon Beckham had two hits and drove in two
runs to support six solid innings from Lucas Harrell in his major league debut
as Chicago downed Oakland, 6-1, in the opener of a three-game set.
Harrell (1-0),
<< Atlanta's Heyward comes through in extras in Cincy
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jayson Heyward delivered the game-winning
two-run double in the 10th inning as Atlanta upended Cincinnati, 6-4, in the
first of a three-game set.
Brian McCann homered and Chipper Jones added two hits,
Edmonton gets by BC for first win of season >>
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ricky Ray threw for 360 yards and a pair of
touchdowns, and the Edmonton Eskimos outlasted the British Columbia Lions,
28-25, at Commonwealth Stadium in Alberta.
Ray completed 25-of-34 pass attempts
Langer up two at Senior Open >>
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bernhard Langer continued his hot play Friday
as he carded a two-under 68 to grab a two-stroke lead after the second round
of the U.S. Senior Open.
Langer, who is coming off a win last week at the S
Murray into semis in LA >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andy Murray took a first-set tiebreaker
against Alejandro Falla of Colombia and took control from there for a straight
victory in the quarterfinals at the $700,000 Farmers Classic tennis event.
The top
Marlins beat Padres to begin weekend series >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gaby Sanchez and Cody Ross homered to lead
the Florida Marlins past the San Diego Padres, 4-2, in the opener of a three-
game series.
Hanley Ramirez and Logan Morrison each drove in a run for the Marl
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Terrell Owens could return for Cowboys next game
A bye week will allow Terrell Owens broken hand to recover just in time for the next game the Dallas Cowboys are slated to play, according to reports. MySportsbook.com, an football sportsbook, has posted football betting lines on TO playing.
Owens broke the bone leading to his right ring finger Sunday night and had a plate surgically attached to it Monday. Although Owens' hand was swollen and aching Wednesday, Dallas Cowboys coach Bill Parcells said he's optimistic the receiver will be back at work next week and catching passes a week from Sunday against the Tennessee Titans.
MySportsbook.com online sportsbook listed Terrell Owens with odds of 7-2 (or $7 paid out for every $2 bet) to return back for the game against Tennessee.
"I certainly wouldn't rule it out now," Parcells said, referring to Terrell Owens immediate return. "Maybe five days from now I might, but I wouldn't rule it out now. ... I know we're looking to try to get him moving around pretty good in the next day or so. So we'll see where we are."
Owens did not speak with reporters Wednesday, but said Sunday he'd be out two to four weeks. A return against the Titans would be 13 days after the surgery. The Cowboys were listed as an early -7 1/2 favorite vs. the Tennessee Titans for Week 4 at MySportsbook.com
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