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07/31/2010 - Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bernhard Langer continued his hot play Friday as he carded a two-under 68 to grab a two-stroke lead after the second round of the U.S. Senior Open.
Langer, who is coming off a win last week at the Senior British Open, completed 36 holes at three-under-par 137.
The German is trying to become the first player to win back-to-back majors on the Champions Tour since Tom Watson won the Senior British Open and the JELD- WEN Tradition in 2003.
Jeff Roth, the club professional at San Juan Country Club in New Mexico, fired a four-under 66 to match the low round of the championship. That helped him move into a share of second place at minus-one.
He was joined there by John Cook and Tommy Armour III, who both shot two-under 68s on Friday. They were the only four players to complete 36 holes in red figures.
Local favorite Fred Couples and Watson both shot 70 for the second straight day. They share fifth place at even-par 140 with Loren Roberts (72) and Michael Allen (71).
The round was completed despite a two-hour, 12-minute fog delay early in the day at Sahalee Country Club.
Langer was in one of the first groups out off the first tee on Friday. He opened with a six-foot birdie putt on the first, but faltered to a bogey on the par-four third.
After five straight pars, Langer stumbled to another bogey at the ninth after hitting his approach into a greenside bunker. He atoned for that mistake with a 20-foot eagle putt on the par-five 11th.
Langer again reeled off five consecutive pars to remain at minus-two. He converted a nine-footer for birdie on the par-three 17th and parred the last to finish at three-under.
"I hit it straight and made some putts. It's always the same, isn't it," Langer joked. "Just different venues, different conditions, but it's always same idea, hit it where you're looking and try and play smart, attack the holes that can be attacked and play smart on the other ones."
First-round leader Bruce Vaughan had yet to tee off when Langer finished. Vaughan struggled badly on Friday as he faltered to a 12-over 82, which dropped him into a share of 40th.
Roth isn't just in unfamiliar territory on the leaderboard, he is also unfamiliar with USGA Championships in general. The last USGA championship he competed in was back in 1975.
His unfamiliarity with the situation didn't show on Friday. Roth birdied the first, but tripped to a bogey on the third. He climbed to even-par for the championship with birdies on five, seven and nine.
Around the turn, Roth got to minus-one with a birdie at the 11th. He bogeyed the 16th, but closed with a birdie at the last to finish at minus-one.
"It's really kind of funny, because I've always tried to qualify for USGA events, and this is only my second USGA event I played in," Roth explained. "I think the way USGA sets up the golf course, it really is good for me, because I'm just one of those guys that grinds it out. I can make as good a par as anybody, and that's usually a pretty good score."
Cook played the back nine first Friday and was even-par with a birdie on 16 and a bogey at the 18th. On the front nine, he poured in three straight birdies from the second. Cook wrapped bogeys at seven and nine around a birdie on the eighth.
Armour was even-par for his round through 12 with birdies on two and four and bogeys at the third and 12th. He moved into a share of second thanks to birdies at 15 and 17.
Tom Kite (69) and Scott Simpson (71) are tied for ninth place at one-over-par 141. Mark Calcavecchia (73) headlines a group of five players at plus-two.
NOTES: There were eight sub-par rounds for the second straight day...Defending champion Fred Funk posted an even-par 70 Friday and is tied for 29th place at plus-six after two days....The cut line fell at 10-over-par 150 with 69 players making it to the weekend...Former champions Brad Bryant, Hale Irwin, Dave Eichelberger and Dale Douglass were among those that missed the cut as were Mark O'Meara, Ben Crenshaw and Fuzzy Zoeller.
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Busch S
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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